Snowcover is found across extensive areas of the Northern Hemisphere during the winter and early spring seasons. Meltwater provided by this snowcover can be an important source of freshwater for agriculture, domestic uses, and hydroelectric power. Rapid ablation of the snowpack, however, can also pose environmental hazards such as flooding.

The ability to forecast meltwater quantities is dependent on a knowledge of the factors influencing the snowmelt process. This paper employs a hybrid modeling and synoptic climatological approach to investigate the relationship between synoptic weather patterns, surface energy fluxes, and midwinter snowmelt in the northern Great Plains. A one-dimensional mass and energy balance model is used to compute the surface energy fluxes during large snowmelt episodes (greater than 0.0254 meters or 1 inch). The use of modeled fluxes in lieu of measured values allows for a more spatially extensive analysis as surface fluxes over the entire study region can be analyzed in conjunction with the prevailing synoptic scale weather patterns.

Large snowmelt events are found to be associated with three major synoptic patterns. All three patterns involve a mid-latitude cyclone moving through the region. While in the warm sector of the cyclone, warm air is advected into the region, and sensible heat is transferred into the snowpack. The patterns are, however, distinguished by variables such as wind speed, temperature, and relative humidity which subsequently affect both the surface energy fluxes, and the amount and spatial distribution of snowmelt.